Just like Maxwell Smart, the agent extraordinaire of control, I know what it means to "miss it by that much."
I picked three winners last week, but my chance for a four-pack fell short by 12 seconds. Yes, I lost a chance for a perfect week when Geroy Simon scored an unbelievable touchdown with 12 ticks to go to beat the Edmonton Eskimos, who rallied from a huge deficit to take the lead inside the final minute, but then blew it.
To suggest I was anything but peeved would be putting it mildly. Whatever happened to a prevent defence? What about cover four or even cover five? Dang. I’ve always liked Jim Daley, but he should have implemented a different defence. Then again, if T.J. Hill makes a routine tackle, the Eskimos win.
Oh, well, such is life in the wonderful world of prognosticating.
I will resist the urge to carp – make that crap – on the Eskimos more than I already have because they have a chance to redeem themselves playing the Argos, the antidote to losing. The Argos are what Edmonton Sun columnist Terry Jones would call, "the free space on the Canadian Football League bingo card."
By the way, I’ve been approached about lending my expertise to a feature documentary on CFL handicapping to be known as Picking Winners For (Mel) Profit.
Friday
Edmonton (6-8) at Toronto (3-11):
The Eskimos are enough to drive anyone to drink. They are clearly in a slump, although they had a chance to turn things around in the last game, which was a combination of a lousy first half, a good second half and a late collapse.
We’re going to suggest quarterback Ricky Ray has recovered from his funk, or that offensive co-ordinator Kevin Strasser has figured out how to use his pivot. Let Ray move around. It’s not his strength, but he makes great plays on the run even though he is considered more of a pocket passer.
Hopefully, Strasser, who is based on the sidelines for the second consecutive game, gets the plays in quicker. It’s clearly affecting Ray, who also doesn’t look comfortable with that wristband thing.
Okay, enough said about the Strasser and Ray. Running back Arkee Whitlock had trouble with his footing in the last game. Indoors on a fast track he’ll be much better. The Eskimos need more production from Kamau Peterson. He’s due for a breakout game.
The Argos offence is a mess – but Bart Andrus says he sees improvement – sans the running game, so it’s up to the defence to at least hold the team together. The return game has been non-existent the whole season and now loses recent-returnee Dominique Dorsey with a likely season-ending injury. This one is too easy. Randle the Handle has the Eskies favoured by a miserly 4½. I think that’s a little low.
Winner: Edmonton. Don’t let me down Eskies or Control becomes Chaos.
Saturday
Saskatchewan (8-6) at Calgary (8-6):
The Riders rebounded from a lacklustre performance against B.C. with a good, but not great, win over the Argos. Then again, 10 points in the cold is okay. I wonder what the loss of receiver Weston Dressler will mean to the offence? He does so many things well, including the end-around. He may be their most valuable player.
Fellow receiver Andy Fantuz has a new contract to keep him in Green and White for some time, and in the absence of Best Dressler, he’ll be the go-to guy.
The Rider defence must be salivating playing a weak opponent. This is a chance to create some separation. Without Jamie Boreham for the second-consecutive game (and maybe for the season), it’s up to Luca Congi to do double-duty again. I think it may affect the team more than last week. Calgary simply has hit rock bottom, bickering in the locker room after the loss to Montreal. This is the sign of a team coming undone. Who would have thought the defending Grey Cup champions would collapse so badly? This is their time to show their mettle.
Quarterback Henry Burris has to step up. He’s just been awful in recent weeks, although it’s not all his fault. Nik Lewis dropped a touchdown pass in the last game, a sign of just how fragile the offence has become. So it falls upon Joffrey (All World) Reynolds to pick up the slack on the ground. Special teams need to be better, too, and I don’t mean just with the fake punts. Saskatchewan has been good to me in recent weeks and I know I’ve endeared myself to the Green and White fans because they’ve stopped with the nasty comments.
And I don’t ache as much from those pins they’re sticking in a doll resembling me. Calgary is Randall’s choice by 3½. Hometown crowd and a winning record at home gives Calgary a slight advantage.
Winner: Calgary. Does this mean the Rider fans will be on me again after the long love-in?
Sunday
Hamilton (7-7) at Montreal (12-2): Cats need to get going quickly, so the best way to do that is to start Kevin Glenn. You can only stick with Quinton Porter, who is clearly struggling and reminds me now of Anthony Calvillo when he played for Hamilton. Maybe Porter will be better off the bench. The Als defence is simply too strong to allow a young, struggling quarterback to find his confidence. But the problem is more than just Porter. What’s happened to the running game with DeAndre’ Cobb? What’s happened to the receiving game, notably Arland Bruce? The offence has fallen into an overall funk. Maybe Glenn can take some of the late prowess from Thanksgiving and apply it to this day.
The Als are due for a letdown, if only for a game. It happened around this time last year. Then again, the Als rarely lose at home and have depth. Maybe Avon Cobourne will come back from his injury, but more likely he’ll be rested. Head coach Marc Trestman has done everything right and has instilled a killer instinct in his team.
Winner: Montreal. I simply don’t have the "Cohons" to pick Hamilton.
B.C. (7-7) at Winnipeg (6-8):
The Lions are rolling, although last week’s win was a fluke. That said, their best players are playing well. If receiver Paris Jackson returns from a one-game injury, it has to make the offence that much better. He was starting to get on a roll. Fellow receiver Geroy Simon is in a groove, and that’s dangerous. Running back Martell Mallett may not play because of a foot problem.
The Lions defence collapsed last week in the second half against Edmonton, particularly allowing the quarterback to make plays on the run. And that’s the strength of Winnipeg pivot Michael Bishop. The Lions have been susceptible against the run this season and their kicking game is still shaky. The Bombers have won their past three – albeit playing weak opponents – and have put aside all the off-field distractions and controversy. Credit must be given to head coach Mike Kelly (and likely president Lyle Bauer) for doing away with the little things that eroded the team’s focus.
Now it’s about winning and playing to perfection. Bishop and the team’s new co-ordinator Manny Matsakis are doing good things, notably using the shotgun, which coach Lefko advised earlier in the season.
The receiving corps has found some new weapons, thus a close resemblance to the aerial attack of a few years ago. For the defence, it’s about putting a hurt on Buck Pierce. He’s on a roll now since the ultimatum by head coach Wally Buono. But he may be due for a slight letdown. This is a game that could go either way. If the Bombers are without punter Mike Renaud (not to be confused with Mike Reno of Loverboy fame), it could impact on kicker Alexis Serna’s steady play. Punting is not his game, and the Lions are good at blocking punts. Randall has this one as a pick-em. We think Randall should have a little more jam than that. But we like Randall. He’s my financial advisor.
Winner: Winnipeg.
Record last week: 3-1
Record to date: 38-18 (best in the land).
Record picking in the cold: I’m hot.